The 75/55 Green-Light Test: Is Your Market Worth Entering?
Share
Ask ten hosts why they chose their market and nine will describe a feeling: "it's a tourist town," "everyone's always booked," "my cousin does great there." The 75/55 Green-Light Test replaces the feeling with two numbers you can actually check.
The two numbers
75: The strong performers in the market — the well-photographed, well-reviewed, competently run listings — hold around 75% occupancy in season. This tells you demand rewards quality. If even the good listings sit two-thirds empty, no amount of effort on your part fixes the market's math.
55: The median listing — the middle of the pack — holds around 55%. This is the more important number, and the one almost nobody checks. It tells you demand is deep: there are enough guests that average operators still eat. You will launch as an average listing (zero reviews guarantees it), so the median's survival rate is your launch forecast.
Why both numbers matter
A market can pass 75 and fail 55 — a handful of superhosts monopolizing thin demand. That's a winner-take-all market, brutal for newcomers. A market passing both has a demand curve wide enough to climb: launch in the middle, execute well, and work toward the 75 tier as reviews compound.
How to check it
Review frequency is your occupancy proxy: listings collecting 3–4 reviews a month are turning over guests near the strong-performer tier; roughly half that rate suggests median performance. Sample 15–20 listings across the quality spectrum, note their review cadence over the past few months, and the market's shape appears. (Analytics tools shortcut this, but the review method works with nothing but the platform itself.)
Green light isn't a guarantee
Passing 75/55 means the market can support you — not that any specific deal works. The deal itself still has to survive its own floor-level economics. But run in sequence — market first, deal second — these two checks screen out the majority of expensive mistakes before a dollar moves.
Go deeper: the STR Market Analysis Playbook
The full Green-Light Test, Reverse Market Mapping, comp interpretation, and slow-season diagnostics — the complete market-analysis system, written down.
Educational content — results vary by market. See our Earnings Disclaimer.